The 108th legislature has officially begun its business, and things look markedly different from last year. 16 new senators have been sworn in, along with a new Clerk (Brandon Metzler, former Assistant Clerk;), a new Speaker (Sen. John Arch of LaVista, formerly Chair of HHS;), and new Committee Chairs. While the Unicameral Legislature is officially nonpartisan, the ideological balance of power has shifted further to the right, with 32 registered Republicans and 17 registered Democrats. More than in recent history, Republicans are within grasp of that magical number of 33 votes that’s required to overcome a filibuster and thus pass legislation despite opposition from the minority. Now, whether or not there’s 33 senators in lockstep on any given bill really depends on the issue: it’s well known that there are at least one or two anti-abortion Democrats, while some moderate Republicans may not agree with their more conservative colleagues on approaches to issues like school funding. Issues that were blocked by filibusters in the past, such as permitless concealed carry of firearms, may stand a chance this year.
Committee chair elections, which happen every two years at the beginning of the biennium in the long session, unfolded with very little drama. That’s not for lack of would-be contenders for committee chairmanships, but the fact that most of the cards were already on the table about which hopeful leaders had the votes to win their elections. The only upset in committee chair races was sitting Education chair Sen. Lynne Walz losing to Sen. Dave Murman. Murman said he wants to focus on parents’ rights to involvement in their child’s education and school finance reform, bolstering the likelihood that a Governor Pillen-backed proposal to change Nebraska’s school funding formula to a per-pupil system will make it to the floor for debate.
An anticipated possible fight over the rules did not yet come to fruition this week, after the legislature agreed to adopt the temporary rules without a fuss on Day One. This means that the legislature has agreed to honor the rules as they stood last year until January 20th. At the end of this week, 48 potential changes to the rules were submitted by senators to the Rules Committee for consideration. Those will likely be heard in committee this week, with floor debate on the rules beginning on January 17.
Friday saw a bit of a dust-up over how committee membership was determined by the Committee on Committees (yes, that’s it’s real name). Critics including senators Conrad, Day, Hunt, and M. Cavanaugh complained that long-time institutional norms, namely the consideration of committee incumbency, seniority, and individual member preferences were cast by the wayside in this year’s committee assignment process. It was overtly partisan and designed to create specific outcomes for bills in key committees, they said, and warned of difficult days ahead if further attempts to flout institutional norms are successful.
Long time watchers may remember that in 2017, debate over the rules dragged out for 40-some days, preventing legislators from getting to the business of advancing bills. Comparisons are being drawn between now and the circumstances that led to the big 2017 rules fight. Now that conservatives may have a supermajority in votes to undo long standing rules that they haven’t had in recent history, they’ve signaled a willingness to strike while the iron is hot. Chiefly of concern is a bloc of senators that have indicated their support for a measure to do away with the “Secret Ballot”, or the process by which senators anonymously cast votes for which of their colleagues they want to lead committees. Critics of the secret ballot say that it obscures the legislative process from public view and that senators should cast their votes for leaders openly. Defenders of keeping this long held institutional norm argue that it’s key to the unique nonpartisan functioning of the unicameral in that it allows senators to vote for the best person for committee chairmanship jobs rather than voting along party lines. After how this year’s committee elections fell almost perfectly along party lines even with the secret ballot intact, it’s unclear if and when the supposed 31 senators who hoped to do away with the secret ballot process will continue to push for this.
Session Issues Preview
This year a lot of eyes will be on how the legislature proposes to spend a whopping $1.9 billion dollar budget surplus, which is largely a product of federal pandemic aid dollars circulating in the state’s economy. Fiscal experts have cautioned that legislators must be wise about how this money is spent because it is a temporary situation rather than one that is shored up by policy changes to sustain it long-term. That is, it appears to be a great time for the state to make some one-time or short term investments in infrastructure and programs that might not require significant ongoing spending, as future years will inevitably bring economic downturns.
Here’s my rundown of other issues I expect to get the most attention this year:
- Prison overcrowding: Debate will continue about when and how much the state should invest in a new prison facility, in the context of an increasingly overcrowded incarcerated population. Recall that last year a thoroughly studied proposal of solutions to reduce overcrowding was stymied by partisan arguing. The state last year set aside the necessary funds for a prison but stopped short of authorizing it. With a new judiciary chair (Sen. Wayne) and fresh committee makeup, we might see some new movement on these intertwined issues this year.
- Abortion: While opponents were able to block a total ban on abortion in LB 933 last year, this is certainly one to watch as abortion opponents have likely gained the ground they need to pass some type of measure to further restrict abortion in Nebraska. It seems, however, that those senators have realized a total ban is politically unpopular with Nebraskans, so we’ll probably see something more pared down than a total ban, like a ban on abortion services after a certain time period like 12 or 16 weeks.
- School funding and privatization: New Governor Pillen has been vocal about his intention to try to scrap the school’s aging school funding formula (TEEOSA) and replace it with a per-pupil method of funding. Critics argue that this one-size-fits-all approach will be harmful to schools and districts with higher levels of student needs. We also expect to see a renewed effort toward private school vouchers or other efforts at funneling public dollars away from public schools this year, likely from Sen. Linehan.
- Tax cuts: Expect new efforts to reduce taxes, with proposals that might focus on both cutting income tax brackets and providing further property tax relief. When the state has this large temporary chunk of money, there’s certain to be conflict about how best to get some of that money back into the hands of Nebraskans, and whether such proposals equitably benefit low, middle and high income earners. I’ve also heard a suggestion of one-time direct refund checks that could be sent directly to Nebraskans.
- Implementation of Voter ID ballot initiative: Now that voters passed this measure on the ballot, it’s up to the legislature to determine the specific rules around its implementation. This will probably be a source of contention among senators who believe in a need for greater election security versus opponents who are concerned about voter suppression and protecting voters’ rights.
This week will mostly involve the introduction of new bills. The last day for senators to introduce bills is on January 18th, and then public hearings on introduced bills will begin on January 23rd. As bill introduction is completed, I’ll share an overview of notable legislation.
Until next week, Your Capitol Fly on the Wall
